National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Severe Weather Continues for the Center of the Nation; Heat Concerns for Southern Texas

A developing storm across the Plains will bring rounds of severe weather for center of the nation the next couple of days. In addition, increasing temperatures and winds with low humidity values will raise wildfire concerns for portions of the Southwest. These temperatures may set new records for southern Texas this week. The northern Great Basin and northern Rockies, cooler conditions arrives. Read More >

 

Local Office Content

 
 

Due to technical issues, snow reports will return in the fall of 2024.

 

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Synopsis
PERIOD 1 PERIOD 2
Weather Comment: None Weather Comment: None
Alta Guard Temperature (°F) Snow Amount
Probability
Snow Water Eq.
Probability
Snow Level (kFt) Alta Guard Temperature (°F) Snow Amount
Probability
Snow Water Eq.
Probability
Snow Level (kFt)
               
Snow Rate (in/hr) Average Peak Snow Rate (in/hr) Average Peak
           
Snow Comment: None Snow Comment: None
Wind (MPH) 12 Hr Average Direction Gust (Peak) Wind (MPH) 12 Hr Average Direction Gust (Peak)
9000' Ridgelines       9000' Ridgelines      
11000' Ridgelines       11000' Ridgelines      
Wind Comment: None Wind Comment: None
Probability of Lightning (%) Probability of Lightning (%)
   
Storm Totals
Storm Duration Storm Total Water Storm Total Snow
N/A N/A N/A
Remarks: None

 

 

 

Probabilistic content not available for this area
       
Issuance
Synopsis
PERIOD 1 PERIOD 2
Weather Comment: None Weather Comment: None
Alta Guard Temperature (°F) Snow
Amount
Probability
Snow
Water Eq.
Probability
Alta Guard Temperature (°F) Snow
Amount
Probability
Snow
Water Eq.
Probability
 
Snow Level (kFt)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Snow Level (kFt)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Snow Comment: None Snow Comment: None
Precipitation Intensity (in/hour) - Snow Precipitation Intensity (in/hour) - Snow click for Water
   
Precipitation Intensity (in/hour) - Water Precipitation Intensity (in/hour) - Water click for Snow
   
Snow Density (%) Snow Density (%)click for SLR
   
Snow-Liquid Ratio Snow-Liquid Ratio click for Density
   
Wind Comment: None Wind Comment: None
9,000 ft Wind (mph) 9,000 ft Wind (mph)
   
11,000 ft Wind - Mt Baldy (mph) 11,000 ft Wind - Mt Baldy (mph)
   
Probability of Lightning (%) Probability of Lightning (%)
   
Storm Totals
Storm Duration Storm Total Water Storm Total Snow
N/A N/A N/A
Remarks: None

The new probabilistic mountain weather forecast is being provided for the remainder of this season as a demonstration for our snow safety partners in Little Cottonwood Canyon and Provo Canyon to evaluate the utility of added probabilistic data and new forecast visualizations. The operational mountain weather forecast has long provided a simple probabilistic snowfall (and water content) forecast, while many other fields of the forecast like temperature, snow ratio, snow level, and wind provided deterministic forecast values.

The main goal of developing the new probabilistic mountain weather forecast is to better communicate the range of potential outcomes in the forecast, while also making timing and trend information more readily apparent with visualizations. This includes using more robust science and statistics behind each probabilistic field by leveraging the extensive amount of ensemble forecast information now available.

The snow and water amount forecasts are based on the Probabilistic Snowfall Forecasts with the human forecaster able to modify the probabilistic information as needed. The temperature, snow level, snow ratio, and lightning fields are based on the official NWS point forecast with the spread for each variable derived from the National Blend of Models (includes 100 ensemble members and a mix of high resolution and global models). Wind direction, speed, gusts, and uncertainty are based on in-house model blends. The human forecaster retains the ability to adjust the median or max value of each of these parameters.

The new probabilistic forecast is considered a beta / test product for the remainder of this season as we gather feedback and input that will inform how this product evolves in the future to meet the snow safety partners' needs. While the new probabilistic forecast will generally have the influence of a human forecaster, it should be treated as an experimental product and used with caution, while the legacy mountain weather forecast remains the official snow safety forecast.