000
FXUS63 KSGF 291050
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
550 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Windy conditions today with wind gusts of 40-50 mph along and
west of an Osceola to Cassville line. Gusts of 30-40 mph
elsewhere across the Missouri Ozarks.
- Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon.
- Monitoring the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms
Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Fri Mar
29 2024
Upper-level ridging continues to move across the area today
while shortwave energy cuts through the Plains. Meanwhile, a
deep cyclone is approaching the Pacific coast. At the surface,
a low pressure system across the High Plains is progged to
strengthen as it shifts east, setting up a strong surface
pressure gradient across the region. Likewise, a stout 55 kt
low-level jet will intrude into southeast Kansas and southwest
Missouri this morning.
Given the tight surface pressure gradient, south-southwesterly
winds will increase this morning into the afternoon hours.
Forecast sustained winds range from 15 mph across south-central
Missouri to 30 mph across western Missouri and southeast Kansas.
Concurrently, Bufkit momentum transfer soundings indicate the
potential to mix down the stronger 850 mb flow in the afternoon.
The latest NBM statistical data continue to suggest high
probabilities (60-80%) of wind gusts greater than 45 mph
generally along and west of an Osceola to Cassville line.
Furthermore, not-insignificant probabilities (20-40%) exist for
a few gusts greater than 50 mph for this area, though
probabilities decrease to near 0% for gusts greater than 55 mph.
A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of the area from
10 AM to 7 PM.
Elevated fire danger will be a concern as well today. Given the
well mixed thermodynamic profile, dew points have been nudged
down to the NBM 10th percentile. Temperatures will also be
around 10-15 degrees above normal with increased warm air
advection. As a result, minimum afternoon relative humidities
roughly range from 35-45% across the region, but will likely
vary locally if there are some breaks in the clouds.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT
Fri Mar 29 2024
The surface low will drag a cold front through the area Friday
night into Saturday. While moisture looks to be shallow, a few
ensemble members still manage to squeeze out a few showers
across central Missouri. Confidence in this precipitation being
realized is low, however, and chances are currently 20% or less.
For Sunday, LREF clusters continue to come into better
agreement in the evolution of the aforementioned upper-level
trough along the west coast and have remained fairly consistent
over the past several runs. Notable surface features include a
low across the High Plains with an east-west oriented warm
front set up somewhere across central/northern Missouri. The
majority of ensemble members appear to keep this front north of
our area Sunday, so much of the day appears to remain dry as of
now. Regardless, the setup features a broad warm sector across
the region with increasing moisture return, which may prime the
atmosphere for thunderstorm development.
Most ensembles bring the better dynamic lift and kinematics to
our area sometime Monday, which will be the favored day for
potential strong to severe thunderstorms. The arrival time of
these kinematics will influence storm structure and evolution,
and therefore the hazards. These details will continue to be
ironed out it the coming days. The Storm Prediction Center has
outlined our entire forecast area in a 15% severe outlook.
Notably, the CIPS severe analog and particularly the CSU
machine-learning product have shown increasing signals for
severe weather Monday.
Cooler temperatures look to move in behind this system Tuesday,
and NBM statistical data suggest the potential for our next
frost/freeze Tuesday night. Otherwise, dry conditions appear
likely for the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 542 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
South-southwest winds will increase quickly at the start of the
TAF period. As a strong low-level jet moves into southeast
Kansas and southwest Missouri this morning, low-level wind
shear will be present at all three terminal sites. This speed
max will allow for sustained winds of 15-25 kt with frequent
gusts. Gusts will likely be strongest at the JLN site and may
approach 40 kt in the afternoon. High clouds will also increase
after sunrise. Winds subside somewhat after 00Z this evening.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
March 31:
KSGF: 62/1967
April 1:
KSGF: 62/1946
Record Precipitation:
April 1:
KVIH: 0.88/1945
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for MOZ066-067-077-078-088-089-093-094-101-102.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Didio
CLIMATE...Schaumann