Area Forecast Discussion


000
FXUS63 KSGF 182243
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
543 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High confidence in above normal temperatures this weekend into
  early next week (mid to upper 80s).

- Return of active weather and severe thunderstorm potential
  early to mid next week, with the highest chances on Tuesday
  night.

- Unsettled weather may persist through late next week into
  Memorial Day Weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Late spring Chamber of Commerce weather to continue through tomorrow
as an approaching cold front stalls and retreats northward
overnight. Weak lift with limited moisture will keep storm
potential to the west and north in the vicinity of the front.

Winds that will be initially variable will return southerly while
upper heights climb as a southwest to northeast orientated ridge
builds overhead, pushing high temperatures on Sunday into the
mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Unsettled weather to make a return next week starting Sunday night
into Monday as a series of storms dig into the western US then
progress across the nation.  Medium range models are showing
reasonably good agreement in bringing a modest wave under the
developing western trough and across the central Plains early
Sunday. Precipital water will slowly increase taking a "hard way"
trajectory from the western Gulf through Texas across central
Oklahoma into Kansas before curling in time into Missouri.

As a result, models have trended northward with precipitation
chances late Sunday into Monday along the low level convergence
provided by the front west and north of the forecast area as
the front becomes disconnected to the upper wave exiting into
the Great Lakes.

Attention then turns to a more significant storm system that will
cross the Plains Tuesday into Wednesday. As with several past
systems this spring, the associated upper wave will take on a
negative tilt as it moves across Nebraska into Iowa. Models have
trended slower, potentially making this a nocturnal event.

With the Gulf now open instability will be favorable with kinematics
pointing toward organized  severe convection, though at this
time anticipate the better low level shear to be found north of
the forecast area within the SPC Enhanced region.

Several additional waves are then suggested later in the
workweek, and potentially into the Holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 539 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will persist through most
of the night however some MVFR fog will likely form at BBG and
perhaps SGF by sunrise Sunday. Winds will remain light and
variable, becoming southerly on Sunday.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Record High Temperatures:

May 20:
KSGF: 90/1964
KJLN: 92/1956
KUNO: 89/1964

May 21:
KSGF: 91/1987
KJLN: 91/1987


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 20:
KSGF: 71/1902

May 21:
KSGF: 70/1902

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Burchfield
CLIMATE...Burchfield