Area Forecast Discussion


000
FXUS63 KSGF 122310
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
610 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and t-storms (non-severe) this evening with
  increasing coverage and thunder overnight. More widespread
  showers and storms on Monday with a marginal severe risk Monday
  afternoon/evening over far southern MO.

- Rain all day Monday; precipitation ending west to east Tuesday.

- Additional precipitation possible late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

A low pressure system slowly moving toward the has resulted in
a few showers popping up nearby this afternoon. Coverage of
showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase through
tonight, but no severe thunderstorms are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

The low will continue to move through the region Monday before
moving out on Tuesday. Coverage of showers and storms will be
greatest late tonight into Monday night. In the warm sector
ahead of the low on Monday afternoon/evening, we could see a
few strong to severe thunderstorms over the southern CWA as
models are now showing SBCAPE values up to 1,000-1,500 J/kg and
0-6km shear of 30-40 kts. Overall, expect organization to be
limited, which should limit severe threats to hail up to 1 inch
in diameter and gusts less than 60 mph.

Localized flooding is also possible on Monday, mainly due to
increased soil moisture from recent rainfall events. Overall
expect 0.5-1.5" across much of the area, but CAMs are showing
potential for locally higher amounts of 2-3 inches.

Precip will decrease in coverage during the day Tuesday, ending
from west to east.

Tuesday night and Wednesday will be dry for the most part, then
models show another round of upper level energy bringing rain
chances Wednesday night into Saturday. There is a high level of
variability in guidance, which lowers confidence, but the best
chances for rain are during the day Thursday at 50-70%.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 607 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

For the 00z TAFS, some scattered afternoon convection has
developed in an area between the JLN and SGF terminals. Believe
this activity may skirt the SGF area and went VCSH in the TAFS,
but not enough confidence for a tempo group. Main convection
will be later tonight into Monday in association with an upper
level low pressure system. Ceilings will lower after midnight
with the convection moving in with MVFR and IFR conditions
expected. Some clearing out will take place from mid morning
into the early/mid afternoon before additional convection is
expected to develop later in the afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Lindenberg