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Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Services

National Division

PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Forecast

Weather.gov > Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Services > PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Forecast
 

PEAC seasonal Rainfall Outlook

The PEAC seasonal Rainfall Outlook is an experimental consenus forecast, produced monthly for 14 stations within Hawaii and the USAPI. The PEAC Outlook uses data from the following 7 models: UKMO, NASA GMAO, ECMWF, IRI, NCEP Constructed Analog, NCEP Coupled Model and APCC MME.

The PEAC seasonal Rainfall Outlook is a probabalistic forecast displayed in tercile form (3 categories). The three categories represent the chances of an event falling into the "Below Average", "Near Average" and "Above Average" categories, respectively. For example, a seasonal rainfall forecast of 20:30:50 should be interpreted as follows: There is a 20% chance of "Below Average" rainfall for the season; a 30% chance of "Near Average" rainfall for the season; and a 50% chance of "Above Average" rainfall for the season.

For more information on terciles, click here.

 

April-May-June (AMJ) 2024
Model:
UKMO
ECMWF

NCEP CA
NASA GMAO
NCEP Coupled
IRI
APCC
Final Outlook
Final Probabilities
 
Republic of Palau
  

Koror
L 7 ° 22' N,
λ 134° 32' E
Below
Below
Avg-Below
Avg.
Avg-Above
 Avg-Below
 
Below
40:35:25
 
Federated States of Micronesia
  
Yap
L 9° 29' N,
λ 138° 05' E
Below
Below
Below
Avg-Below
Avg.
Below
 
Below
50:30:20
Chuuk
L 7° 28' N,
λ 151° 51' E
Below
Below
Avg-Below
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
 Avg-Below
 
Below
45:30:25
Pohnpei
L 6 ° 59' N,
λ 158° 12' E
Avg-Below
Below
Avg-Below
Avg.
Avg.
Below
 
Below
45:30:25
Kosrae
L 5 ° 21' N,
λ 162° 57' E
Below
Avg.
Below
Avg-Above
Avg.
 Avg-Below
 
Below
40:35:25
 
Republic of the Marshall Islands
  
Kwajalein
L 8 ° 43' N,
λ 167° 44' E
Avg-Below
Below
Below
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
 Below
 
Below
45:30:25
Majuro
L 7° 04' N,
λ 171° 17' E
Avg-Below
Below
Avg-Below
Above
Avg.
 Below
 
Below
45:30:25
 
Guam and CNMI
  
Guam
L 13 ° 29' N,
λ 144° 48' E
Below
Below
 Below
Avg-Below
Avg-Below
Below
 
Below
50:30:20
Saipan
L 15 ° 06' N,
λ 145° 48' E
Below
Below
Below
Avg-Below
Avg-Below
Below
 
Below
45:30:25
 
American Samoa
  
Pago Pago
L 14 ° 20' S,
λ 170° 43' E
Above
Avg-Below
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
 Avg.
 
Avg-Above
30:35:35
 
State of Hawaii
  
Lihue
L 21 ° 59' N,
λ 159 ° 20' E
Below
Below
Avg-Below
Avg-Below
Avg.
Below
 
Below
45:30:25
Honolulu
L 21 ° 19' N,
λ 157° 56' W
Below
Below
Avg-Below
Avg-Below
Avg.
Below
 
Below
 45:30:25
Kahului
L 20 ° 54' N,
λ 156° 26' E
Below
Below
Avg-Below
Avg-Below
Avg.
Below
 
 Below
45:30:25
Hilo
L 19 ° 43' N,
λ 155° 03' E
Below
Below
Avg-Below
Avg-Below
Avg.
Below
 
Avg-Below
35:35:30

 

Forecast Discussion

 

Koror: Rainfall for April-May-June 2024 is expected to be Below for Airai. There is a 45% chance that rainfall during the AMJ season will be less than 34.28 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 34.28 inches and 42.1 inches; and a 25% chance that rainfall will be greater than 42.1 inches.

Yap: Rainfall for April-May-June 2024 is expected to be Below for Yap. There is a 45% chance that rainfall during the AMJ season will be less than 21 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 21 inches and 32.89 inches; and a 25% chance that rainfall will be greater than 32.89 inches.

Chuuk: Rainfall for April-May-June 2024 is expected to be Below for Chuuk. There is a 45% chance that rainfall during the AMJ season will be less than 32.97 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 32.97 inches and 39.15 inches; and a 25% chance that rainfall will be greater than 39.15 inches.

Pohnpei: Rainfall for April-May-June 2024 is expected to be Below for Pohnpei. There is a 45% chance that rainfall during the AMJ season will be less than 49.71 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 49.71 inches and 56.96 inches; and a 25% chance that rainfall will be greater than 56.96 inches. 

Kosrae: Rainfall for April-May-June 2024 is expected to be Below for Kosrae. There is a 40% chance that rainfall during the AMJ season will be less than 47.62 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 47.62 inches and 51.87 inches; and a 25% chance that rainfall will be greater than 51.87 inches.

Kwajalein: Rainfall for April-May-June 2024 is expected to be Below for Kwajalein. There is a 45% chance that rainfall during the AMJ season will be less than 15.41 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 15.41 inches and 26.35  inches; and a 25% chance that rainfall will be greater than 26.35 inches.

Majuro: Rainfall for April-May-June 2024 is expected to be Below for Majuro. There is a 45% chance that rainfall during the AMJ season will be less than 25.63 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 25.63 inches and 34.51 inches; and a 25% chance that rainfall will be greater than 34.51 inches.

Guam: Rainfall for April-May-June 2024 is expected to be Below for Guam. There is a 40% chance that rainfall during the AMJ season will be less than 13.05 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 13.05 inches and 15.95 inches; and a 25% chance that rainfall will be greater than 15.95 inches.

Saipan: Rainfall for April-May-June 2024 is expected to be Below for Saipan. There is a 45% chance that rainfall during the AMJ season will be less than 8.14 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 8.14 inches and 11.06 inches; and a 25% chance that rainfall will be greater than 11.06 inches.

Pago Pago: Rainfall for April-May-June 2024 is expected to be Avg-Above for Pago Pago. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the AMJ season will be less than 22.42 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 22.42 inches and 33.53 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 33.53 inches.

Lihue: Rainfall for April-May-June 2024 is expected to be Below for Lihue. There is a 45% chance that rainfall during the AMJ season will be less than 5.32 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 5.32 inches and 7.98 inches; and a 25% chance that rainfall will be greater than 7.98 inches.

Honolulu: Rainfall for April-May-June 2024 is expected to be Below for Honolulu. There is a 45% chance that rainfall during the AMJ season will be less than 4.74  inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 4.74 inches and 5.97 inches; and a 25% chance that rainfall will be greater than 5.97 inches.

Kahului: Rainfall for April-May-June 2024 is expected to be Below for Kahului. There is a 45% chance that rainfall during the AMJ season will be less than 1.25 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 1.25 inches and 2.17 inches; and a 25% chance that rainfall will be greater than 2.17 inches.

Hilo: Rainfall for April-May-June 2024 is expected to be Avg-Below for Hilo. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the AMJ season will be less than 21.42 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 21.42 inches and 29.01  inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 29.01 inches.

The PEAC seasonal Rainfall Outlook is an experimental consensus forecast, produced monthly by the Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Service's for 14 stations within Hawaii and the USAPI. Tercile cut-offs for each location and season are based on Pacific Rainfall Climatologies (Climate Prediction Center) 1981-2010. The new climatologies are currently in the works and will be integrated once approved. Last Updated: April 22, 2024

 

 

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