BACK | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2007 | 2005
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Technical Paper or Presentation |
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| 2018 |
2018 Analysis of Gridded Precipitation Estimation Techniques at the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center Validation statistics compiled and presented for several different rainfall estimation techniques. Validation statistics for the final rainfall estimation product also evaluated at different times of day to look for effect of human/manual quality control efforts. |
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A Preliminary Look at Using Rainfall Average Recurrence Interval to Characterize Flash Flood Events for Real-time Warning Forecasting New operational tools used at the National Weather Service allow forecasters to compare rainfall events in real-time to the climatological record to better assess significant events. This paper investigates the potential flash flood impacts associated with varying levels of rainfall severity. |
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| 2017 |
2017 Update to Gridded Flash Flood Guidance at the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center An update to Gridded Flash Flood Guidance development methods was documented by the LMRFC. |
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Rainfall Analysis for the August 5, 2017, New Orleans Flash Flood Event A slow-moving summer thunderstorm caused flash flooding portions of New Orleans on August 5, 2017. This paper presents a rainfall analysis and a comparison to other New Orleans flood events caused by rainfall. |
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| 2017 |
Rainfall Analysis for the Late April into Early May 2017 Flood Event in Southern Missouri and Northern Arkansas In late April 2017 heavy slow-moving thunderstorms impacted parts of OK, AR, MO, and IL, and caused widrespread major flooding with numerous records broken. This paper presents a rainfall analysis using additional rainfall gauges from multiple sources. |
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| 2017 |
NWS River Forecasting, GIS, and the 2016 Amite/Comite River Flood An overview of river forecasting at the LMRFC, GIS usage at the LMRFC, and the August 2016 flood event in southeast Louisiana. Invited presentation to the Louisiana URISA organization in Baton Rouge, LA. |
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| 2017 |
Utilizing Crowd-Sourced Rainfall and Flood Impact Information to Improve the Analysis of the North Central Gulf Coast Flood Event of April 2014 In late April 2014, a slow moving cold front produced a large area of showers and embedded thunderstorms across the southeast United States which caused extensive flooding of areas near Mobile, Alabama, and Pensacola, Florida. This paper presents a case study to illustrate the importance of crowd sourcing rainfall observations and storm reports to establish an accurate historical context for extreme hydrologic events. |
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| 2016 |
2016 Forecast Verifications at the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center Using Varying QPF From summer 2015 through summer 2016, two forecast verification analyses were conducted by the NWS Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center. The first was for long range forecasts on the Mississippi River comparing forecasts with 1 day of QPF to forecasts with 16 days of QPF. The second was for smaller headwater basins comparing QPF durations of 12-72 hours. |
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| 2016 |
Addition of a Vulnerability Component to the Flash Flood Potential Index The Flash Flood Potential Index (FFPI) has been used by many NWS Weather Forecast Offices and River Forecast Centers to determine the relative flash flood potential across an area. The FFPI lacks a component that evaluates the vulnerability to flash flooding. A Flash Flood Vulnerability Index (FFVI) was proposed and tested by LMRFC staff collaborating with other NWS offices. The FFVI was combined with the FFPI using the conceptual model of risk where risk is a combination of probability and impact. |
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| 2016 |
Geospatial Analyses at the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center An overview of how GIS is used at the LMRFC. Presented as an invited session at the Remote Sensing and GIS Conference in Lafayette, LA |
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| 2016 |
Creation of Rainfall Areal Reduction Factors from the Basin-Averaged Rainfall Record at the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center A frequency analysis was completed for the gauge-derived, basin-averaged rainfall for subbasins in the LMRFC area. Rainfall amounts from specific average recurrence intervals (ARIs) were compared to values that would be expected to occur for a basin of a given size to look for possible biases in the rainfall database. |
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| 2016 |
Preliminary Verification of the Lag-Stage-Changes Routing Technique The Lag-Stage-Changes routing method is a simplified routing scheme used by the LMRFC to aid in forecasting river stages on the Mississippi River between Cairo, IL, and New Orleans, LA. The method is based upon the simplified, hand-calculated forecasting technique used for many years by LMRFC forecasters. Because of increasing demand for long range forecasts on the Mississippi, a verification of the technique was necessary. |
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| 2016 |
Using New Orleans Pumping Data to Reconcile Gauge Observations of Isolated Extreme Rainfall due to Hurricane Isaac Slow-moving Hurricane Isaac affected the northern gulf coast between August 28th and August 31st, 2012. This report provides an in-depth examination and analysis of a suspected rainfall extreme in the New Orleans, Louisiana metropolitan area. |
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| 2016 |
Building Inter-Professional Relationships to Create a Weather Ready Nation - Thoughts of an Emergency Manager Turned NWS Forecaster Presented to the 2016 AMS Meeting in New Orleans, LA. |
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| 2015 |
An Untapped Mesonet -- Crowdsourcing Private Weather Stations Presented to the 2015 AMS Meeting in Phoenix, AZ. |
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| 2015 |
Using Crowd-Sourced Data to Improve Analyses of Flash Flood Events Presented to the 2015 AMS Meeting in Phoenix, AZ. |
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Updated Rainfall Analysis for the May 1995 Southeast Louisiana and Southern Mississippi Flooding Very heavy rainfall on 10-11 May 1995 caused significant flooding across portions of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. A post-event technical report, NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS SR-183 (Ricks et al., 1997), provided a meteorological overview and rainfall analysis of the event using rain gauge data. Subsequent changes to the official National Weather Service (NWS) rainfall estimation technique, improved GIS capabilities, and the completion of rainfall frequency estimates for the southern United States have allowed for a new analysis of this event. |
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2014 |
Analysis of the June 15, 2013, Isolated Extreme Rainfall Event in Springfield, Missouri An isolated extreme rainfall event occurred across portions of the Springfield, Missouri, area on June 15th, 2013, causing substantial flooding of several small headwater tributaries of the James River. A timeline of output from various flash flood nowcasting techniques was compared to the time of reported flooding to evaluate the usefulness of each tool in the context of NWS operations. |
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Reconciling New Orleans Pumping Data with Gauge Observations of Isolated Extreme Rainfall Due to Hurricane Isaac *Superceded by Journal of Hydrologic Engineering Publication* |
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2013 |
2012 Southeast Louisiana and Southern Mississippi Flooding Due to Hurricane Isaac [PDF (Report)] [PDF (Presentation)] Slow-moving Hurricane Isaac affected the northern gulf coast between August 28th and August 31st, 2012. The most severe flooding impacts from storm surge and heavy rainfall occurred in southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. The slow movement of Isaac was a major contributor to this flooding. |
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LOUZIE: An Operational Quality Control Procedure at the LMRFC The Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (LMRFC) has developed an operational, manual quality control (QC) procedure for gauged precipitation data across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. This report provides a description of the data sources and methodology used to develop the LOUZIE program and spreadsheet along with an example of the monthly spreadsheet from November 2007 in Excel format. |
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2007 |
ENSO Forcing of Streamflow Conditions in the Pearl River Basin [PDF (Report)] [PDF (Presentation)] Long range forecasts of streamflow conditions can be improved by including the effects of El Nino/Southern Oscillation during operational procedures. This paper uses composite analysis techniques to relate above/below normal streamflows to ENSO episode and tests the skill of forecasts using 1982-2005 data. |
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Forecasting Hurricane Storm Surge on the Mississippi River [PDF (Report)] [PDF (Presentation)] A unique forecast problem for the LMRFC is the forecasting of stages on the lower Mississippi River when a hurricane induced storm surge is present. Storm surge waves move rapidly upstream and can cause significant damage and delays to barge traffic along the Mississippi River. |
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