000 FZHW50 PHFO 110103 SRFHFO SURF ZONE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 300 PM HST FRI DEC 10 2004 HIZ005>011-100500- OAHU- 300 PM HST FRI DEC 10 2004 ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH FACING SHORES... SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 12 TO 18 FT TODAY, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 12 FT SATURDAY. SURF ALONG WEST FACING SHORES WILL LOWER FROM HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 10 FEET TODAY TO 3 TO 5 FT SATURDAY. SURF ALONG THE EAST FACING SHORES WILL BE 4 TO 6 FEET TODAY, DECREASING TO 2 TO 4 FT SATURDAY. SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN 1 TO 3 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. OUTLOOK THROUGH THURSDAY DEC 16: ANOTHER LARGE SWELL...FROM THE NORTHWEST...WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY...RESULTING IN ADVISORY LEVEL SURF SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH HEIGHTS POSSIBLY REACHING THE NORTH SHORE WARNING LEVELS OF 25 FEET AND REMAINING ABOVE THE 15 FOOT ADVISORY LEVEL ON THURSDAY. SURF HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST HEIGHTS OF THE FACE OR FRONT OF WAVES. THE MOST RECENT SURF OBSERVATIONS ARE USED FOR THE INITIAL CONDITIONS IN THE SURF FORECAST. ONCE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RECEIVES CONSISTENT FULL-FACE OBSERVATIONS...A NEW PRODUCT WITH THE OAHU AND NEIGHBORING ISLANDS SURF OBSERVATIONS WILL BE ADDED. && EXPERIMENTAL COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI 300 PM HST FRI DEC 10 2004 THIS EXPERIMENTAL COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE. WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS NOT AVAILABLE...THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR 4 DAYS. FORECAST CONTENTS MORE THAN 4 DAYS OLD WILL BE REMOVED FROM THIS PRODUCT. FORECAST SWL DMNT DMNT HGT WIND WIND SPD DATE HGT DIR PD TEND PROB SPD DIR TEND 1 PM 10 NNW 13 SAME 22-27 NNE DOWN 12/10 8 N 8 SAME SAT 8 NNW 12 DOWN HIGH 7-10 ENE DOWN 12/11 6 NNE 8 DOWN MED SUN 5 NNW 11 DOWN MED 7-10 E SAME 12/12 5 NNE 9 SAME MED 3 NW 20 UP LOW MON 12 NW 17 UP HIGH 7-10 E SAME 12/13 4 NNE 9 DOWN MED TUE 8 NW 14 DOWN MED 7-10 E UP 12/14 3 NE 9 DOWN LOW 4 WNW 25 UP LOW WED 24 NW 18 UP LOW 7-10 E SAME 12/15 LEGEND: SWL HGT OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE DMNT DIR DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS POINTS DMNT PD DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS HGT TEND HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME) PROB PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW) WIND SPD OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN MPH LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE WIND DIR WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS SPD TEND WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME) RECOGNIZING THAT SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NOAA NATIONAL COASTAL DATA DEVELOPMENT CENTER WORKING WITH THE SURF FORECAST TECHNICAL ADVISORY GROUP WILL DEVELOP GENERAL RANGES OF SHOALING FACTORS OR OTHER FACTORS IN THE NEAR FUTURE FOR THE ABOVE TABLE. AT THE CURRENT TIME OCEAN-GOERS CAN USE THE SURF FORECAST AT THE TOP OF THIS MESSAGE ON WHICH PAT CALDWELL HAS COLLABORATED. FOR THOSE WHO WANT TO DETERMINE SURF HEIGHTS BASED ON THE ABOVE OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHTS CAN DERIVE SHOALING FACTORS OR OTHER FACTORS FOR THEIR PARTICULAR NEED AND LOCATION BASED UPON OPEN OCEAN SWELL FORECAST VALUES AND THEIR PAST EXPERIENCE AND KNOWLEDGE. THIS FORECAST WILL BE AN EVOLVING PROCESS AND WILL BE IMPROVED WITH EXPERIENCE AND FEEDBACK. DISCUSSION: SUMMARY... WINTER PATTERN OF LARGE TO POTENTIALLY EXTREME SURF EPISODES ARRIVING BACK TO BACK. DETAILED... MID FRIDAY ON NORTHERN SHORES HAS HIGH...ROUGH SURF OUT OF 325-345 DEGREES WITH 11-15 SECONDS. WINDSWELL IS ALSO ARRIVING ON NORTH-FACING SHORES OUT OF 340-020 DEGREES AT 4-10 SECONDS. THE COMBINATION IS MAKING FOR CONFUSED BREAKERS. BOTH SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER DOWN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMED NORTHEAST OF THE STATE TODAY ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH HAWAII YESTERDAY. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING AWAY RESULTING IN A FRUSTRATED FETCH...THAT IS...LIMITED...FOR THE BATCHES OF SEAS AIMED AT HAWAII. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY SMALL TO MODERATE BREAKERS OUT OF 20-40 DEGREES WITH 8-10 SECOND PERIODS FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE STORM TRACK REMAINS ACTIVE FROM THE KURILS TO THE LONGITUDES OF HAWAII. THE NEXT STORM IN THE SERIES FORMED YESTERDAY. BY LAST EVENING...THE QUIKSCAT SATELLITE SHOWED A VERY BROAD AREA OF 40-50 KNOT WINDS AIMED AT HAWAII AND TARGETS NORTH OF HAWAII. THE AGITATED SEAS PROPAGATING TOWARD HAWAII IN THE 315-325 DEGREE SWATH ARE GETTING CONTINUAL REINFORCEMENT OF STORM WINDS SINCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALSO TRACKING EASTWARD AT ABOUT THE GROUP SPEED OF THE WAVES. THIS CAPTURED FETCH OF 40-50 KNOT WINDS SHOULD REACH THE DATELINE LATER TODAY. WEAKER WINDS OF 30-35 SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD HAWAII LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FROM 320-335 DEGREES...REACHING TO WITHIN ABOUT 800 NM OF THE ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. THE PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER THROUGHOUT THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS NORTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THE FRONT IS MODELLED TO PULL NORTH AS IT WEAKENS NORTH OF HAWAII...THUS NEGLIGIBLE NOTICE IN LOCAL WINDS FROM THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES BY TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AROUND SUNDOWN SUNDAY FROM 315-325 DEGREES. THE EPISODE SHOULD PEAK ON MONDAY IN THE EXTRA-LARGE CATEGORY...MEANING MOST OUTER REEFS ALIVE...THEN SLOWLY DROP OVER THE FOLLOWING 48 HOURS OUT OF 315-340 DEGREES. SURF COULD STAY HIGH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE NEXT SYSTEM COMING OFF THE KURILS ON SATURDAY...WITH EXTREME WINDS OF 50-60 KNOTS EXPECTED IN THE 300-315 DEGREE BAND OVER THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE PRESENT STORM...SITTING AROUND 45 NORTH AS IT OCCLUDES...THAT IS...REACHES ITS MAXIMUM STRENGTH AND STALLS IN FORWARD TRACK...LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY JUST EAST OF THE DATELINE ABOUT 1500 NM OUT FROM HAWAII. THE EXTREME WINDS CENTERED ON ABOUT 312 DEGREES PLUS OR MINUS 8 DEGREES...SHOULD HAVE A CAPTURED FETCH REACHING TO WITHIN ABOUT 1000 NM OF HAWAII BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO PULL NORTH...SO ONLY WEAKER WINDS OF 30-35 KNOTS WOULD TRACK ONWARD TOWARD HAWAII IN THIS BAND REACHING TO WITHIN ABOUT 700 NM. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A SHORT-LIVED INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE NE AFTER IT PASSES BY TO THE NORTH MID TUESDAY. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME WINDS AND A RESULTANT FETCH LENGTH AND DURATION OF ABOUT 2000 NM OVER NEARLY 3 DAYS...RESPECTIVELY...AND REACHING TO WITHIN 1000 NM OF THE ISLANDS...HAWAII COULD SEE SOME OF THE HIGHEST SURF EXPERIENCED SINCE JANUARY 28...1998. TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS SINCE ONE NEEDS TO MONITOR THE ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS...NOT JUST DEPEND ON MODELS...BUT EXTRA-LARGE TO GIANT SURF SEEMS LIKELY. ESTIMATES WILL BE MODIFIED AS THE SYSTEM PROCEEDS. FORERUNNERS OF 20-25 SECONDS COULD ARRIVE AS SOON AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE EPISODE IS EXPECTED RISE ABRUPTLY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SURF HOLDING AT EXTREME LEVELS OUT OF 300-325 DEGREES...ON WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DROPPING ON THURSDAY. LIGHT TRADES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ALLOWING LAND-SEA...AND MOUNTAIN-VALLEY DIURNAL CYCLES TO DOMINATE MOST COASTAL AREAS. SOUTHERN SHORES ARE MOSTLY FLAT. A TINY TO SMALL SWELL FROM 185-200 DEGREES MAY FILL IN MONDAY AND HOLDING INTO TUESDAY. INTO THE LONG RANGE...THE ALEUTIAN LOW IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS MODELLED TO FIRMLY ESTABLISH ITSELF COVERING A BROAD AREA FROM THE KURILS TO THE LONGITUDES OF HAWAII. AT THE SURFACE...A SERIES OF FAST-MOVING...STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM OFF JAPAN ALONG THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE MOTHER LOW TO JUST EAST OF THE DATELINE...THEN PULL NORTH...FEEDING BACK INTO THE MOTHER LOW. THIS SHOULD MEAN CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LARGE TO GIANT SURF LATER NEXT WEEK. WAY OUT IN THE 10-15 DAY STORM TRACK MODELS...THIS PATTERN MAY RELAX A NOTCH LEADING INTO CHRISTMAS WITH HINTS OF A PINCHED OFF LOW IN THE SUBTROPICS SENDING THE PRIMARY JET BACK NORTHWARD. STORMINESS JUST SE OF NEW ZEALAND OVER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK COULD HAVE SMALL SURF LOCALLY OUT OF 180-200 DEGREES FOR THE WORK WEEK LEADING TO CHRISTMAS. MODERATE TRADES INCREASING TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST OF HAWAII SHOULD BRING IN A SMALL WINDSWELL FROM 70-90 DEGREES LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...LIGHT TRADES COULD HOLD LOCALLY. LONG RANGE ESTIMATES HOLD LOW CONFIDENCE. THE NEXT COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED ON MONDAY...DECEMBER 13. THIS FORECAST WAS PRODUCED THROUGH THE COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS OF NWS AND NCDDC. PLEASE SEND SUGGESTIONS TO W-HFO.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV OR CALL THE WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST AT 808-973-5275. ADDITIONAL RESOURCES: SEE /IN LOWERCASE/ HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/PAGES/MARINE.PHP $$ NWS FORECASTER AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL