000 FXHW60 PHFO 102057 CCA AFDHFO HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 1050 AM HST FRI DEC 10 2004 CORRECTED TYPOS IN SYNOPSIS .SYNOPSIS... A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LAST THROUGH TODAY. LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP SEVERAL DEGREES TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE...AND DRY TRADEWINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ON SATURDAY...USHERING IN A PERIOD OF FINE WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS IN THE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... STIFF AND GUSTY WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND THE STATE...BUT CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED IN NATURE. SATELLITE ANALYSIS OF CLOUD MOTION OVER THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE ISLANDS PRODUCES NORTH WINDS OF 25 KTS. THIS NUMBER AGREES WITH WHAT IS BEING RECORDED AT GAGES LOCATED AT THE WINDIER LOCATIONS OVER LAND. AT THE MOMENT...THE KONA COAST IS SHOWING THE HIGHEST WINDS...WITH THE KONA AIRPORT REPORTING SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 36 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 43 MPH AT 9 AM. OTHER WINDY LOCATIONS INCLUDE LANAI...WHERE AN AUTOMATED SENSOR NEAR THE AIRPORT REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 43 MPH FROM THE NORTHEAST...AND KAHOOLAWE...WHERE TWO SENSORS ARE INDICATING GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH. THE BLUSTERY WINDS ARE BEING CAUSED BY A STRONG AND FAST MOVING HIGH NORTH OF THE STATE. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PEGS THE HIGH NEAR 32N 166W AT 1027 MB...MOVING TOWARD THE EAST AROUND 30 MPH. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN A BIT AS IT MOVES DIRECTLY NORTH THEN NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. AS SUCH...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON THEN START TO DIMINISH THEREAFTER. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER OVERNIGHT AND TRANSITION INTO LIGHT TRADES SATURDAY. ON TEMPERATURES...THE WINDS TODAY WILL COMPOUND THE ALREADY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE THE ISLANDS. AS THE WINDS LET UP TONIGHT...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP SEVERAL DEGREES...INTO THE LOW TO MID SIXTIES. COMMUNITIES LOCATED AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO MORE SEASONAL NORMS SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE LIGHT TRADE WIND PATTERN SETS UP SHOP. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS..EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK FOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS. LEEWARD AREAS SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL OVER THE SAME PERIOD. FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE PROGRESSIVE...LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL KEEP SYSTEMS MOVING RIGHT ALONG TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER WEAK HIGH CELL FOLLOWING SUNDAY MOVING WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF 30N. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE STILL SHOWING A COLD FRONT OR ITS REMNANTS DROPPING SOUTH TO THE ISLANDS LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STARTED BUMPING UP THE SKY COVER AND POP GRIDS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAIN ISLANDS. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER. && .MARINE... SURF THE CURRENT NORTH SWELL AFFECTING THE ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THUS THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS. HOWEVER...WITH AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK IN THE NORTH PACIFIC...EXPECT ANOTHER ADVISORY LEVEL SURF EPISODE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THE HORIZON...MODELS ARE INDICATING AN IMPRESSIVE STORM SYSTEM SHAPING UP IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH THE PROJECTED AND UNUSUALLY LONG FETCH...SURF EXCEEDING THE WARNING LEVEL OF 25 FEET FOR NORTH FACING SHORES IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT NUMBERS WILL BE HASHED OUT OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM DEVELOPS. .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY KAUAI...OAHU EXCEPT OLOMANA...MOLOKAI...LANAI...MAUI EXCEPT HALEAKALA SUMMIT...KAHOOLAWE...AND BIG ISLAND EXCEPT NORTH AND EAST AND SUMMITS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS. HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR ALL NORTH FACING SHORES EXCEPT LANAI TODAY AND TONIGHT. && $$ TANABE