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WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH 1055 AM EDT Thursday March 28 2024 THE FOLLOWING IS THE 30-DAY WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF April .WATER RESOURCES STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK... Streamflows forecast for the month of April are generally normal through the bulk of the Ohio River forecast basin...with some below normal possible for areas of southern basin. Reminder that climatologically April has some of the highest streamflows for a lot of the basin, so "normal" flows can sometimes mean some elevated streamflows. ..................................................................... .HYDROLOGIC FLOOD AND DROUGHT POTENTIAL... Flood potential is near normal for the month of April while drought is not expected or minimal at this time. ..................................................................... .PAST 30 DAY HYDROLOGICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL REVIEW... RAINFALL DEPARTURES... Precipitation over the past 30 days has been below normal in the western half of the basin and near normal generally for the eastern half. Indiana, western Kentucky, and eastern Illinois ran 50-90 percent of normal whilst Pennsylvania, Ohio , and West Virginia was roughly normal. Scattered pockets of 125 percent were observed in western PA. https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/images/dynamic/latest30day.jpeg SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS... Soil moisture is generally running below normal through the southwestern half of the basin at 20 to 30th percentile.The rest of the basin is generally running near normal as we head deeper into spring. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/soilmst/w.shtml STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS... Streamflows at the end of March are below normal in the western half of the Ohio River forecast basin as well as the far eastern portions. Central basin is generally running very close to normal. https://watermonitor.gov ..................................................................... .ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTION AND OSCILLATION FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT MONTH... TELECONNECTION/OSCILLATION PATTERN ARCTIC OSCILLATION Neutral = Near Normal NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION Negative = Below Normal PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION Neutral = Near Normal ENSO - EL NINO/LA NINA OSCILLATION Weakening El Nino = Below to approaching normal precipitation https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov ..................................................................... .TECHNICAL DISCUSSION... Teleconnections and antecdent conditions point to continued normal to slightly below normal streamflow outlook for the month of April. El Nino has been the principal driver in a normal to lower than normal precipitation picture through the past couple of months, but that is expected to begin rapidly weakening. Below normal looks more likely in the southern half of the basin where the northern basin could be impacted with an early April system. Again, reminder climatologically April has some of the highest streamflows for a lot of the basin, so "normal" flows can often mean some elevated streamflows. ....................................................................... VISIT OUR WATER RESOURCES WEBSITE AT http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/WRO IN ADDITION TO A 30-DAY STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN A 60- AND 90-DAY OUTLOOK AT THE WEBSITE $$