National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH 723 AM EDT Thursday May 2 2024 THE FOLLOWING IS THE 30-DAY WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF MAY .WATER RESOURCES STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK... Streamflow forecast for the month of May are generally normal through the bulk of the Ohio River forecast basin...with some above normal possible for areas of the southeast basin. When flows are normal in the springtime, this can still indicate some elevated streamflows. This could also include some minor flooding in locations like Indiana rivers. ..................................................................... .HYDROLOGIC FLOOD AND DROUGHT POTENTIAL... Flood potential near normal for the month of May. Indications are that drought is not a threat at this time. ..................................................................... .PAST 30 DAY HYDROLOGICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL REVIEW... RAINFALL DEPARTURES... Precipitation over the past 30 days was generally above normal for the Ohio Valley. This was especially true over western Pennsylvania and northern Indiana where totals were double the normal amounts. Some areas did see below normal totals, such as portions of southern Indiana, southern Kentucky, middle Tennessee and far western Virginia. https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/images/dynamic/latest30day.jpeg SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS... Driven by recent precipitation trends, soil moisture has been highest in Pennsylvania and northern Indiana. Soils remain relatively dry across Kentucky and Tennessee. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/soilmst/w.shtml STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS... Streamflows during April were significantly above normal north of the Ohio River, especially in the northeastern Ohio Valley. By the beginning of May streamflows were generally below normal in the southeastern half of Ohio Valley, and normal elsewhere. https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/rt ..................................................................... .ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTION AND OSCILLATION FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT MONTH... TELECONNECTION/OSCILLATION PATTERN ARCTIC OSCILLATION Neutral = Near Normal NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION Slightly below normal = Near normal precipitation north, Above average south PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION Below normal = Slightly above average precipitation ENSO - EL NINO/LA NINA OSCILLATION Weakening El Nino = Near normal precipitation. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov ..................................................................... .TECHNICAL DISCUSSION... Outlooks favor normal to the wet side of normal for the second half of Spring. Despite streamflows being lower over the southeastern Ohio Valley, better chances of above normal precipitation over the southeast makes this the most likely area to see occasional above normal flows. As El Nino weakens and potential increases for La Nina development later into the summer, the outlook for rainfall is expected to transition towards drier than normal in the Ohio Valley. ....................................................................... VISIT OUR WATER RESOURCES WEBSITE AT http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/WRO IN ADDITION TO A 30-DAY STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN A 60- AND 90-DAY OUTLOOK AT THE WEBSITE $$ Crawford