| Since we updated our software in early August, we have not been able to generate the soaring forecast. We are continuing to work on it, but we do not know when or if we will be able to keep providing this service. We apologize for the inconvenience. |
It is emphasized...this soaring forecast information is valid only for the RAOB site area, and frequently will not apply to other areas of the state.
Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Wichita, Kansas
2055 CDT Monday, August 7, 2023
This forecast is for Tuesday August 8, 2023
:
If the trigger temperature of 84.3 F/29.0 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Good
Maximum rate of lift........................ 669 ft/min (3.4 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 7927 ft MSL (6400 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 89.0 F/32.1 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1345 CDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 6407 ft MSL (4880 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Wednesday 08/09.... Fair
Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:40:54 / 20:33:42 CDT
Total possible sunshine........... 13 hr 52 min 48 sec (832 min 48 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:37:18 CDT... 66.65 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 08/07/2023 at 0600 CDT
Freezing level.................. 14986 ft MSL (13459 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 12660 ft MSL (11133 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 9883 ft MSL (8357 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -0.7
K index......................... +26.1
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
18000 -6.8 19.8 300 17 9 7.2 4.0 43.8 110.8 10.2 M M
17000 -4.7 23.5 300 16 8 7.1 3.9 42.8 109.1 9.9 M M
16000 -2.5 27.5 300 15 8 7.6 4.2 42.0 107.7 9.5 M M
15000 -0.2 31.6 300 15 8 7.9 4.3 41.4 106.5 9.1 M M
14000 2.1 35.8 300 14 7 8.0 4.4 40.8 105.4 8.8 M M
13000 4.4 39.9 300 13 7 7.5 4.1 40.1 104.2 8.2 M M
12000 7.1 44.8 290 13 7 7.8 4.3 39.2 102.6 6.9 M M
11000 9.3 48.7 285 13 7 7.1 3.9 38.5 101.3 5.2 M M
10000 11.3 52.3 285 13 7 6.8 3.8 37.6 99.6 3.5 M M
9500 12.2 54.0 280 13 6 6.6 3.6 37.1 98.8 2.7 M M
9000 13.1 55.6 280 12 6 6.4 3.5 36.6 97.8 1.8 M M
8500 14.0 57.2 280 12 6 6.9 3.8 36.0 96.9 1.0 M M
8000 15.0 59.0 280 12 6 7.2 4.0 35.6 96.1 -0.0 468 2.4
7500 16.0 60.8 275 11 6 5.5 3.0 35.1 95.2 -1.0 439 2.2
7000 16.7 62.1 275 10 5 5.2 2.8 34.4 93.9 -2.0 410 2.1
6500 17.4 63.3 270 8 4 4.5 2.5 33.6 92.5 -2.9 380 1.9
6000 18.1 64.6 265 7 4 4.0 2.2 32.8 91.0 -3.8 349 1.8
5500 18.8 65.8 265 6 3 5.6 3.1 32.0 89.6 -4.6 312 1.6
5000 19.6 67.3 260 5 3 5.0 2.7 31.3 88.4 -5.3 275 1.4
4500 20.1 68.2 260 4 2 3.9 2.1 30.5 86.8 -6.1 239 1.2
4000 20.7 69.3 260 4 2 3.9 2.1 29.6 85.3 -6.9 203 1.0
3750 20.9 69.6 260 3 2 3.3 1.8 29.1 84.4 -7.3 185 0.9
3500 21.1 70.0 260 3 2 2.7 1.5 28.6 83.5 -7.7 168 0.9
3250 21.2 70.2 250 3 1 1.7 0.9 28.0 82.5 -8.1 151 0.8
3000 21.3 70.3 225 3 1 0.5 0.3 27.4 81.3 -8.6 135 0.7
2750 21.2 70.2 205 3 2 -0.5 -0.3 26.6 79.9 -9.0 118 0.6
2500 21.1 70.0 200 3 2 1.7 0.9 25.9 78.6 -9.5 104 0.5
2250 21.3 70.3 200 3 1 3.6 2.0 25.4 77.7 -10.1 92 0.5
2000 21.5 70.7 200 2 1 3.8 2.1 24.9 76.9 -10.7 79 0.4
1750 21.7 71.1 200 2 1 -0.7 -0.4 24.4 75.9 -11.5 73 0.4
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
08/07/2023 at 0900 CDT | 08/07/2023 at 1200 CDT
|
CAPE... +239.4 LI... -2.8 | CAPE... +698.4 LI... -3.2
CINH... -310.3 K Index... +32.8' | CINH... -184.1 K Index... +25.8'
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
18000 -6.1 21.0 350 81 42 8.0 4.4 | -5.5 22.1 345 72 37 7.9 4.3
17000 -3.8 25.2 350 93 48 7.8 4.3 | -3.1 26.4 350 81 42 7.9 4.3
16000 -1.6 29.1 350 100 52 7.7 4.2 | -0.9 30.4 350 86 44 7.6 4.2
15000 0.6 33.1 355 104 54 7.6 4.2 | 1.2 34.2 350 89 46 7.6 4.2
14000 2.6 36.7 355 97 50 6.7 3.7 | 3.5 38.3 355 93 48 8.3 4.6
13000 4.5 40.1 350 72 37 7.1 3.9 | 5.9 42.6 355 98 50 7.8 4.3
12000 6.4 43.5 345 39 20 7.4 4.1 | 8.0 46.4 355 85 44 6.6 3.6
11000 8.3 46.9 300 11 6 6.4 3.5 | 9.7 49.5 355 58 30 5.6 3.0
10000 10.4 50.7 190 57 30 6.3 3.5 | 11.4 52.5 355 46 24 5.5 3.0
9500 11.3 52.3 185 84 43 6.2 3.4 | 12.0 53.6 350 21 11 5.6 3.1
9000 12.2 54.0 185 95 49 6.2 3.4 | 12.7 54.9 195 19 10 5.7 3.1
8500 13.1 55.6 185 105 54 5.7 3.1 | 13.5 56.3 185 56 29 5.2 2.9
8000 13.9 57.0 185 102 53 5.5 3.0 | 14.1 57.4 185 82 42 5.0 2.7
7500 14.7 58.5 185 95 49 5.4 2.9 | 14.8 58.6 185 103 53 5.4 2.9
7000 15.5 59.9 185 77 40 5.4 3.0 | 15.7 60.3 180 112 58 5.6 3.1
6500 16.3 61.3 185 66 34 4.4 2.4 | 16.3 61.3 180 112 58 3.2 1.8
6000 17.0 62.6 185 60 31 3.9 2.2 | 16.8 62.2 180 102 53 3.6 2.0
5500 17.4 63.3 350 10 5 2.2 1.2 | 17.4 63.3 180 61 31 4.8 2.6
5000 17.7 63.9 180 52 27 0.2 0.1 | 18.1 64.6 180 81 42 3.6 2.0
4500 17.7 63.9 180 51 27 2.7 1.5 | 18.7 65.7 180 106 54 5.0 2.7
4000 17.8 64.0 180 49 25 1.3 0.7 | 19.4 66.9 180 95 49 6.9 3.8
3750 17.9 64.2 180 45 23 2.2 1.2 | 19.9 67.8 180 94 49 7.2 3.9
3500 18.1 64.6 180 39 20 3.4 1.9 | 20.4 68.7 180 96 49 8.0 4.4
3250 18.4 65.1 175 31 16 4.7 2.6 | 21.0 69.8 180 95 49 9.6 5.3
3000 18.7 65.7 175 21 11 4.6 2.5 | 21.7 71.1 180 91 47 10.1 5.5
2750 19.0 66.2 170 10 5 5.0 2.8 | 22.5 72.5 180 90 46 10.0 5.5
2500 19.4 66.9 145 4 2 7.3 4.0 | 23.2 73.8 180 89 46 10.1 5.6
2250 20.0 68.0 100 2 1 9.3 5.1 | 24.0 75.2 180 88 45 11.3 6.2
2000 20.5 68.9 040 3 2 5.3 2.9 | 24.8 76.6 180 87 45 7.9 4.3
1750 20.8 69.4 020 5 3 4.6 2.5 | 25.3 77.5 180 87 45 9.4 5.1
08/07/2023 at 1500 CDT | 08/07/2023 at 1800 CDT
|
CAPE... +1102.0 LI... -4.7 | CAPE... +1151.2 LI... -5.5
CINH... -131.5 K Index... +21.2' | CINH... -151.1 K Index... +19.7'
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
18000 -5.7 21.7 345 61 31 8.4 4.6 | -6.2 20.8 335 40 21 9.2 5.1
17000 -3.2 26.2 350 83 43 8.4 4.6 | -3.5 25.7 340 41 21 9.0 4.9
16000 -0.7 30.7 355 96 50 8.5 4.6 | -0.9 30.4 345 48 25 8.8 4.9
15000 1.7 35.1 355 104 53 8.2 4.5 | 1.7 35.1 350 56 29 8.7 4.8
14000 4.1 39.4 355 97 50 8.1 4.5 | 4.3 39.7 350 64 33 8.5 4.6
13000 6.5 43.7 355 77 39 8.0 4.4 | 6.8 44.2 355 72 37 8.2 4.5
12000 8.8 47.8 350 52 27 8.1 4.4 | 9.1 48.4 355 83 43 7.5 4.1
11000 11.1 52.0 340 19 10 7.7 4.2 | 11.3 52.3 355 86 44 7.8 4.3
10000 13.4 56.1 185 62 32 6.1 3.4 | 14.3 57.7 350 40 21 8.9 4.9
9500 14.1 57.4 180 106 54 4.3 2.4 | 15.6 60.1 310 7 4 6.6 3.6
9000 14.3 57.7 180 101 52 2.8 1.6 | 16.1 61.0 190 30 15 4.1 2.2
8500 14.5 58.1 180 97 50 3.1 1.7 | 16.4 61.5 185 63 32 3.0 1.6
8000 14.8 58.6 180 97 50 3.3 1.8 | 16.5 61.7 180 75 38 2.4 1.3
7500 15.2 59.4 180 99 51 4.4 2.4 | 16.7 62.1 180 84 43 3.7 2.0
7000 15.8 60.4 180 104 53 4.6 2.5 | 17.1 62.8 180 86 44 4.1 2.3
6500 16.4 61.5 180 109 56 4.4 2.4 | 17.6 63.7 180 89 46 3.7 2.1
6000 17.1 62.8 180 114 59 5.8 3.2 | 18.1 64.6 180 96 49 4.6 2.5
5500 18.1 64.6 180 96 50 7.0 3.8 | 19.1 66.4 180 80 41 9.9 5.4
5000 19.1 66.4 180 87 45 6.8 3.7 | 20.6 69.1 180 81 41 7.8 4.3
4500 20.3 68.5 180 84 43 9.6 5.3 | 21.9 71.4 180 81 42 11.6 6.4
4000 21.7 71.1 180 81 42 10.4 5.7 | 23.5 74.3 180 81 42 10.0 5.5
3750 22.4 72.3 180 81 42 9.3 5.1 | 24.2 75.6 180 82 42 9.8 5.4
3500 23.1 73.6 180 81 42 9.1 5.0 | 24.9 76.8 180 82 42 9.9 5.4
3250 23.8 74.8 180 81 42 10.3 5.6 | 25.7 78.3 180 82 42 9.9 5.4
3000 24.6 76.3 180 82 42 10.4 5.7 | 26.4 79.5 180 83 42 9.9 5.4
2750 25.3 77.5 180 81 42 9.6 5.3 | 27.1 80.8 180 83 43 9.8 5.4
2500 26.1 79.0 180 81 42 10.2 5.6 | 27.9 82.2 180 83 43 9.9 5.4
2250 26.8 80.2 180 81 42 11.0 6.0 | 28.6 83.5 180 83 43 10.1 5.5
2000 27.6 81.7 180 81 42 9.8 5.4 | 29.3 84.7 180 83 43 9.8 5.4
1750 28.4 83.1 180 81 42 13.8 7.6 | 30.1 86.2 180 83 43 10.7 5.9
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 CST/0730 CDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 CST/1930 CDT (0130 UTC). It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at the Wichita Gliderport at
North Latitude: 37 deg 45 min 48.420 sec
West Longitude: 97 deg 10 min 41.220 sec
Elevation: 1380 feet (420 meters)
and may not be representative of other locations around the Wichita area. Note
that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models differ from actual
station elevations, which can lead to data which appear to be below ground.
Erroneous data such as these should not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page. To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
051515
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